Mon 19 Nov 2007
global warming: clouds and how they affect modelling
Posted by kris under Politics, global warming
Down and dirty like: there have been periods of vulcanism that have spewed 2X to 3X the amoount of co2 and particulates in the air in a matter of hours than we have since the industrial revolution. all the temp did was swing. then eventually it swang back. its a wholly cybernetic system, thats extremely hard to model which is why scientists chose the assumption of an environmental stasis upon which to start their models which is wrong as we know and they also even the ipcc says they dont know how clouds fit into the model NASA’s Bruce Weilicki says “we present new evidence from a compilation of over 2 decades of accurate satellite data that the top of the atmosphere tropical radiation budget is much more variable and and dynamic than previously thought. results indicate that the radiation budget changes are caused by changes in tropical mean cloudiness. the results of several current climate model simulations fail to predict this large observed variation in tropical energy budget. the missing variability in the models highlights the critical need to improve cloud modeling … this leads to a threefold uncertainty in the predictions of the possible global warming over the next century. we caution against interpreting decadal variability as evidence of greenhouse gas warming”: B.A. Weilicki et al., “Evidence for large decadal variability in the tropical mean radiative energy budget, ” Science 295 (2002): 841-44LOLi doalbedo at least.. that what my computer modelling teacher said (we used macs, and an app called stella). i actually spent time modeling solar output and cloud cover. fun stuff. on a mac SE LOL. onlly one semester. only one paper. it was only about 10 pages. i actually used it in my ecology clas as extra cedit to bring me from aA- to big Ol A. the other model i did was on aids and its spread was about 20- pages. turns out my model is still holding up
:) `KM
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